Abstract The number density of UV luminous galaxies discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope at ultra high redshift (z ≳ 10) is higher, and declines much more slowly with increasing redshift, than expected from extrapolations of lower redshift observations or pre-launch physics-based models. Most of these models assume star formation efficiencies (SFE) of only a few percent, motivated by observations of nearby galaxies. In this work, we incorporate a scaling of SFE with gas surface density (which we refer to as Density Modulated SFE; DMSFE), motivated by cloud-scale simulations and theory, into a semi-analytic cosmological model (SAM) of galaxy formation which is calibrated to match the observed rest-UV sizes of high redshift galaxies. We also model the impact of dust and bursty star formation on the SAM-predicted properties of observed galaxies. We show that with plausible values of the main parameters, such as the fraction of gas in dense clouds fdense, our new models easily reproduce or even exceed the observed galaxy number densities at z ∼ 6–17. While no single value of fdense is able to reproduce the very shallow observed decline of the galaxy number density at z ≳ 12, it is plausible and even expected for fdense to have some effective dependence on cosmic time, which could bring these models into closer agreement with the data. We show that the combined effects of DMSFE, decreasing dust attenuation, and increasingly bursty star formation at earlier cosmic epochs could conspire to reproduce the observed evolution.
Somerville et al. (2025) studied this question.