Advancing extreme event attribution science and communication to meet decision-maker needs in Australia and New Zealand

Purpose Climate change is exacerbating extreme heat and rainfall events, increasing risks to communities, ecosystems and assets across Australia and Aotearoa, New Zealand (NZ). Extreme event attribution (EEA) is an emerging field that can be used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic climate change on extreme events. Recent research suggests that there are numerous opportunities for EEA to inform climate risk decisions; however, it is unknown whether the scientific community can meet decision-maker needs. This study aims to understand whether scientists and communicators are able to meet decision-maker needs for EEA communication. Design/methodology/approach A co-designed, mixed-methods approach leveraged previous research to identify the communication capabilities of 37 Australian and NZ scientists and communicators through qualitative and quantitative surveys. The research identified the current ability, barriers, enablers and pathways forward for scientists and communicators to meet five decision-maker needs for EEA communication to enhance scientific capability and service delivery. The needs for EEA statements are improvements to language, methodology, impact attribution, action-oriented communication and scientific comprehension. Findings Existing scientific and communication capabilities currently meet three out of five decision-maker needs for EEA communication: scientific comprehension (58%), language (53%) and methodology (44%). Barriers such as stakeholder challenges, limited skills, resources and scientific capabilities hinder the ability to meet the remaining two needs: action-oriented communication (26%) and impact attribution (12%). Several pathways were identified to enable all five decision-maker needs to be met within the next five years, including enhanced communication and interdisciplinary collaboration and co-designed knowledge production. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind globally, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to identify how scientists and communicators can meet decision-maker needs from EEA communication. It provides significant insights into the utility and importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and co-design.