Goals. To assess demographic trends in Uzbekistan (2010–2024) and evaluate the need for geriatric care with a moderate increase in the proportion of persons 65 +, comparing them with health resources. Materials and Methods. Retrospective analysis of official data from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2010-2024): population, share of 65 +, birth rate, mortality, life expectancy, health care resources (beds, doctors, outpatient network). The forecast for 2025 was performed by linear extrapolation (total population: y = 679.65x + 27.974, R² = 0.99; age 65+: y = 74.05x + 1.140, R² = 0.98; 95% CI for 65+ = 2.18–2.28 million). The standard for the need for geriatricians was estimated according to the Russian benchmark of 1 geriatrician/20,000 elderly. Results. The population increased from 28.00 million (2010) to 37.80 million (2024); forecast for 2025 - 38.17 million. The share of 65 + increased from 3.9% (2013) to 5.6% (2024); forecast for 2025 - 5.8% (~ 2.23 million). Able-bodied - 56.2% (2024). In 2023, the provision was 47.4 beds and 28.7 doctors per 10,000 population; outpatient organizations increased to 8011. Circulatory system diseases - 57.6% of deaths (2024). According to the standard, about 112 geriatricians are required with an estimated current availability of 0-100 specialists. Conclusions. Against the background of the low proportion of 65 + and expanding general health resources, the creation of a separate branched geriatric service is not a priority. Rationally - integration of geriatric consultants into large centers (Tashkent, Samarkand, Fergana, etc.) for the management of multimorbidity and geriatric syndromes, while strengthening the prevention of chronic non-communicable diseases in the predominant young population. Monitoring of age-specific mortality/morbidity rates and validated indicators of the functional status of the elderly is needed.
Alexandеr V. Martynenko (Tue,) studied this question.