Connecting rising electric vehicle demand to potential land use impacts and threats to biodiversity near key lithium mining areas

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a key technology for reducing global transportation emissions; however, critical minerals used in EV batteries, including lithium, are obtained through mining projects that can cause land use change, habitat loss, and pollution, threatening local biodiversity. These threats could be exacerbated in the coming decades as EV demand expands rapidly. Here, we aim to quantify potential land use change (in km2) and biodiversity threats (in species-richness & species-rarity weighted km2 or "SRR-km2") near ten major global lithium mines (three brine, seven hard rock) by 2040 that could arise from increased EV demand to meet net zero goals. The land use change analysis suggests that brine mines are significantly more land intensive than hard rock mines, with the brine mines encompassing ~80 – 90 % of the total land use footprint of the ten mines and having an average lithium land use intensity (LLUI) of ~0.50 km2 / kt Licumulative, 2040, compared to ~0.055 km2 / kt Licumulative, 2040 for hard rock mines (~10 times greater). Biodiversity threat analysis revealed that mines posing the greatest threats to surrounding ecosystems simultaneously have large land use footprints and are located in regions with high species richness and/or rarity. The lithium biodiversity threat intensity (LBTI) of hard rock and brine extraction methods is comparable (~55 – 60 SRR-km2 / kt Licumulative, 2040), indicating an similar biodiversity threat when considering the net effect of mine land use footprint, species characteristics, and lithium production rate. Ultimately, while the SRR-km2 metric is a useful first-order indicator, its reliance solely on land use, species richness, and species rarity leads to an incomplete assessment of the ecological risks associated with lithium mines. Future work should involve incorporating additional parameters, particularly ecotoxicity, to develop a comprehensive biodiversity threat assessment framework for lithium and other battery mineral mines.