This article is devoted to identifying a significant factor influencing the economic development of the countries of the regional association of the Eurasian Economic Union. The originality of the author's methodological approach lies in the application of the gross domestic product (hereinafter GDP) indicator, expressed in an economic statistical accounting unit (hereinafter ESSE), the correlation-regression method of analysis to the object of study - for the EAEU and the five countries that are part of it. Methods used: parallel series reduction, simple linear regression and correlation, official data for 2005-2024. The quality of the obtained models was tested using the statistical criteria of Student, Durbin-Watson and Fisher. The first hypothesis is confirmed by a positive relationship between annual increases in physical volume indices and GDP growth rates, but in terms of the noticeable strength of the relationship in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. In other regions, connections have been established: high in the EAEU, Russia, Armenia and moderate in Belarus. The second hypothesis about the presence of a statistically significant relationship between these variables was confirmed only in the EAEU, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan. At the same time, Russia occupies a leading position. With confidence intervals, a forecast of the average percentage of GDP growth was made at a reliability level of 95% for the EAEU, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan. The authors recommend the results of the models for use by government bodies of five countries in analyzing the evolution, correlation, and dependence between the rates of GDP growth and real expansion of production, in calculating forecasts of economic growth in the medium term.
Belgibayeva et al. (Tue,) studied this question.