Remaining Cycle Estimation based on a Maintenance Cycle Model

This paper presents a remaining cycle estimation method for aircraft engines, developed during our participation in the PHM 2025 Data Challenge Competition. The features of our method are as follows: Physics-informed Feature Exploration: Through exploratory data analysis utilizing physical insights in the field of aircraft, we found good features that reflect performance degradation. Maintenance Cycle Model: We developed a model that describes cycles of performance degradation and recovery by a weighted composite of health value for each maintenance type. The model fits well with our designated features that reflect the engine performance degradation. Estimation Optimization: Taking the scoring rules into account, we optimized the estimated results by assuming probability distribution of the true values. The optimization enabled precise and stable estimation.