Analyzing the Effects of a KOICA Ultra-Poor Graduation Program in Rwanda focusing on the Role and Determinants of Coach Trust

Purpose: This study aimed to generate practical and policy implications for similar programs by assessing the effectiveness of a self-support program targeting ultra-poor, women-headed households in Rwanda, with a particular focus on the role of coach trust and related factors influencing program outcomes. Originality: By demonstrating not only the program’s overall impact but also the influence of trust in coaches, this study highlights the need to expand such initiatives and deepens understanding of the mechanisms through which they operate. Furthermore, it contributes to the discourse on how to maximize program effectiveness by identifying determinants of coach trust at both the participant and coach levels. Methodology: The analysis was based on survey data collected using a quasi-experimental pre-post design with a comparison group. First, a difference-in-differences analysis was conducted to assess the program’s impact. Second, multiple regression analysis was performed to examine the effect of participants’ trust in their coaches on program outcomes. Finally, hierarchical regression analysis was used to identify factors influencing trust in coaches. Result: The findings indicate, first, that the UPG project was effective in improving food consumption diversity, savings, hope, and community participation, although no significant effect was found for household income. Second, higher levels of trust in coaches were associated with greater improvements in hope, dietary diversity, and household income. Third, the characteristics and competencies of coaches were found to be more critical determinants of trust than the characteristics of participants themselves. Specifically, trust levels were higher when coaches had favorable demographic attributes, as well as greater professional competence. Conclusions and Implication: The UPG model should be considered for scaled implementation aligned with Rwanda’s national poverty reduction strategy. To maximize impact, coaching design should reflect participant profiles and local contexts, and coach recruitment/training should prioritize relevant similarity and competencies.