The Impact of Energy Transition on China’s Urban GTFP: Based on the Threshold Effects of Technology and Policy

This research focuses on the impact of energy transition on China’s urban green total factor productivity (GTFP). We first constructed a comprehensive index system to measure the energy transition. Adopting this index, we analyzed the impact of energy transition on urban GTFP in China, identifying a significant threshold effect. Furthermore, we investigated the heterogeneity of this effect across different regions and city types (categorized by their resource endowments). By constructing benchmark regression and panel threshold models, the paper conducts studies by taking energy technology innovation and energy policy reform as threshold variables. The results show that energy transition is capable of promoting the improvement of GTFP in Chinese cities; its impact exhibits a nonlinear threshold effect, with energy technology innovation and energy policy reform showing a single threshold characteristic, and the promoting effect intensifies after crossing the threshold; there exists heterogeneity at the regional and city-type levels, with cities in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions, as well as different resource-based cities, exhibiting varying performances. Based on the results, in order to promote energy transition and urban sustainable development, it is necessary to formulate policies reasonably and strengthen technological innovation.