Integration of Machine Learning and Remote Sensing to Evaluate the Effects of Soil Salinity, Nitrate, and Moisture on Crop Yields and Economic Returns in the Semi-Arid Region of Ethiopia

Soil salinity, soil moisture, and nutrient loss significantly reduce agricultural productivity and economic benefits in the semi-arid regions of Ethiopia. However, knowledge of how to mitigate these risks remains limited. This study examined the combined effects of salinity (EC), soil moisture (Sm), and nitrate (N) on the yield and profitability of banana, cotton, and maize using field-based and satellite data with seven machine learning algorithms. Our results showed that a higher EC level reduced crop yields, whereas sufficient Sm and N improved productivity and income. Among the models, Random Forest (RF) performed the best, achieving high accuracy (e.g., R2 = 0.998 for cotton, 0.869 for banana, and 0.793 for maize). SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis further identified EC as the most critical determinant, highlighting the priority of salinity mitigation, alongside water and nutrient management. These findings provide farmers and decision-makers with practical insights into how to sustain crop productivity, improve livelihoods, and strengthen food security in semi-arid regions.