Interaction of Sequence Data and Paleogeographic Priors in Biogeographic Dating: How Could Biological Data Inform Time‐Constrained Geological Models?

Aim Biological and geographic patterns and processes are linked such that biological data hold information on paleogeographical patterns and processes. Here, we aimed to test Biogeographic dating as a methodological framework for the integration of biological, paleontological and geological data to test paleogeographic hypotheses. In doing so, we test the potential for well‐calibrated phylogenies and the impact of accuracy and uncertainty in geological priors for estimating paleogeographic events. Location Global. Time Period Various scales. Taxa Flora and Fauna. Methods We investigate the interaction of biological and paleogeographic data and priors in Biogeographic dating, where both are specified and analyzed simultaneously. We evaluate how uncertainty and accuracy in both types of datasets affect the inference of divergence times used as a proxy for generating or testing geological models. We used data simulation to generate a paleogeographic scenario and a nuclear sequence dataset for lineages whose evolution is correlated with geological patterns. Then, gene flow was simulated across landscape units, such that biological patterns inferred from sequence data would deviate from simulated times of paleogeographic change. Under those two scenarios, we specified broad, incorrect and accurate geological priors. These various scenarios were analyzed through Biogeographic dating analyses run in RevBayes and compared with our simulations. Results Models with flat paleogeographic priors (unknown geological models or lack of geological data) were able to accurately infer node dates when simulated biological data mirrored the pattern and timing of paleogeographic events. Gene flow results in divergence time estimates that deviate from the simulated scenario. Our findings also underscore the limitations and sources of error in the use of Biogeographic dating for informing species divergence times and paleogeographic models. Conclusions Our results indicate that Biogeographic dating is a plausible methodological framework for empirical studies integrating biological and geological data to test landscape change scenarios. However, caveats inherent to model assumptions and specifications that result in older estimated divergence times should be taken into account when interpreting results. Implementation of this framework should be coupled with the selection of good biological study systems, achieved through the careful study of focal clades.