Drake Equation 2.0: A Bayesian, TimeDependent, and Observability-Centered Framework

This record contains the manuscript, data, and supplementary materials for “Drake Equation 2.0: A Bayesian, Time-Dependent, and Observability-Centered Framework.” Drake Equation 2.0 is a revised probabilistic framework for estimating the number of currently observable extraterrestrial civilizations, NobsNobsNobs. It extends the classical Drake Equation by:• Using Monte Carlo Bayesian integration with full marginalization over all parameters• Incorporating time-dependent astrophysical quantities (star formation history, metallicity, Galactic habitability)• Modeling signal survival over cosmic time with an exponential decay kernel• Including an explicit detectability term based on real instrument capabilities (e.g., MeerKAT, FAST) The baseline model finds a median Nobs≈0.26Nobs ≈ 0.26Nobs≈0.26 with a 68% credible interval of [0.05,1.95][0.05, 1.95][0.05,1.95]. Uncertainty is dominated by the detectability fraction and the abiogenesis rate. In this framework, a null detection in present-day radio SETI surveys remains entirely consistent with the posterior, providing a quantitative resolution of the Fermi paradox: the probability of zero detections in current searches is ≈73%≈ 73%≈73%. This Zenodo record includes:• The main manuscript PDF• Data archives (drake_eq2_data.zip) containing posterior samples, stress-test results, and sensitivity indices• A reproducibility / publication bundle (drake_eq2_publication.*) with LaTeX source, figures, and configuration files• environment.yml specifying the analysis environment• LICENSE (MIT) and README documentation All reported results are reproducible using the configuration files and environment specification provided. Full simulation code and the complete 1M-sample posterior dataset are available on request.