Does the amount of life lost due to homicide vary across place? Examining the relationship between residential disadvantage and potential years of life lost due to homicide in the United States

One way to value the social cost of homicide is through potential years of life lost—a summary measure of premature mortality. Indeed, estimates indicate that Americans lose more than one million years of their lives to homicide in any given year. This study examines spatial variation in potential years of life lost due to homicide in the United States. Hierarchical linear models nesting homicide victims within homicide incidents and census-designated places predict potential years of life lost among homicide victims in the National Violent Death Reporting System from 2003 to 2021. Results indicate that homicide victims residing in places with higher levels of concentrated disadvantage have significantly more years of life lost. The positive relationship between concentrated disadvantage and potential years of life lost decreases at higher levels of disadvantage, as reflected in a nonlinear relationship representing a saturation effect. Additionally, there is variation in the functional form of the relationship between concentrated disadvantage and potential years of life lost across race and ethnicity. The positive effect of concentrated disadvantage on potential years of life lost decreases at higher levels of disadvantage for White and Hispanic homicide victims, while the effect of disadvantage on potential years of life lost increases exponentially for African American homicide victims. The results hold insight for the way that we consider the social cost of homicide and the manner in which violence prevention efforts account for race and place.