Abstract A fundamental question in cosmology is whether dark energy evolves over time, a topic that has gained prominence since the discovery of cosmic acceleration. Recently, the DESI collaboration has reported increasing evidence for evolving dark energy using combinations of cosmic microwave background (CMB), type Ia supernova (SN), and their new measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). However, our analysis reveals that these combinations are problematic due to clear tensions among the CMB, BAO and SN datasets. Consequently, DESI’s claim of dynamical dark energy (DDE) is not robust. A more reliable approach involves constraining the evolution of dark energy using each dataset independently. Through a statistical comparison for each dataset, on average, we find that DDE is strongly preferred over the Λ CDM model. This suggests that DDE likely exists, although its real parameter space remains elusive due to weak constraints on the dark energy equation of state and inconsistencies among the datasets. Interestingly, when considering DDE, none of the individual datasets – including CMB, DESI DR2, Pantheon+, Union3, and DESY5 – can independently detect cosmic acceleration at a significant level. Our findings not only clarify the current understanding of the nature of dark energy but also challenge the established discovery of cosmic acceleration and the long-held notion that dark energy exerts negative pressure. Both individual and combined datasets suggest that the ultimate fate of the universe is likely to be dominated by matter rather than dark energy.
Wang et al. (2025) studied this question.