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November 30, 2025Scientific Reports3 citationsOpen Access

Analysis and measurement of multi-factor coupling risk in underground coal mine gas explosion based on system dynamics

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HGHuimin GuoCYChen YifanLCLianhua Cheng

Key Points

  • Gas explosion risk evaluation indicates human factors significantly affect safety outcomes in underground settings.
  • Key evidence shows the emergence and mutation of risk levels in coal mine environments alongside hysteresis effects.
  • Assessment using a risk deduction model helps simulate interactions in coal mine gas explosion scenarios based on system dynamics.
  • Findings suggest that addressing coupled factors can enhance overall system safety in coal mine operations.

Abstract

To investigate the evolutionary mechanism of coal mine gas explosion, and to improve the level of system safety. In this paper, a multi-factor coupled risk deduction model for coal mine gas explosion is constructed by using the system dynamics method. The two subsystems of 'human factors' and 'material factors' are simulated by using Vensim software. To obtain the evolutionary trend of system gas explosion risk and the risk change trend of index variables. The risk level of coal mine gas explosion is predicted by adjusting the parameters of the index variables, and the influence of various coupled factors on the development trend of the risk level is analyzed. Through the application of the model, the results reveal that the model has certain applicability and feasibility. The risk values of system variables have a certain degree of hysteresis and cumulativeness in their impact on other variables and the system risk level, and the 'emergence' and 'mutation' phenomena of accident evolution.

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Cite This Study

Guo et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/692b94581d383f2b2a378fe1https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-26325-1
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