Persisting Stickiness in Backwardation Among Major Agricultural Commodities

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between spot and futures contracts in the context of spot prices being higher than futures (backwardation). We focus on the persistence in stickiness during backwardation periods by covering major agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, wheat, and hard red wheat). The period of investigation, January 2000–August 2022, comprises many subperiods, including the pre-2008 global financial crisis, the global financial crisis, the single event of 2014, and the post-2014 stability and growth in world trade. We find the presence of price backwardation and its stickiness for corn and wheat, with the most significant determinants being convenience yield and interest risk.