Estimation of Economic Growth Potential Range for Low-Carbon Transformation of China’s Industrial Sectors Based on Perspective of Energy Input

The low-carbon transition represents the defining feature of China’s economic growth over the coming decades. Based on the perspective of energy input, this paper employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to depict China’s current macroeconomic structure. By increasing energy inputs from sectors such as coal, oil, natural gas, hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power, it estimates the potential range of economic growth associated with the low-carbon transition of China’s industrial sectors. The study finds that: (1) during the industrial low-carbon transition, increasing electricity-based energy inputs and increasing fossil energy inputs exert different impacts on the outputs of other sectors; (2) even when increasing the same type of energy input, the growth of output in other sectors shows varying patterns; (3) substituting original energy inputs with different types of energy leads to distinct changes in sectoral outputs. Estimating the potential range of economic growth in China’s industrial low-carbon transition contributes to achieving the “dual-carbon” and economic growth goals effectively.