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Analysis of youth support decline for sovereignty in Quebec indicates potential challenges for future referendums.
Quebecois separatism has been extensively studied through normative and deterministic lenses, yet the declining support for sovereignty among younger voters (18 to 35 years old) remains underexplored. Recent data indicate a significant decline in this demographic's support for independence. This article uses the Monte Carlo computational method to simulate two scenarios: 1) the probable outcome of the 1995 referendum with current youth support levels, and 2) generational shifts in support, accounting for changes as the 1995 youth cohort ages into older demographics. These simulations offer valuable insights into the potential dynamics of a future referendum in the absence of robust youth backing, highlighting the demographic challenges facing the Quebecois sovereignty movement today.
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Gonzalez et al. (2025) studied this question.
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