PulseExploreJournal ClubDebatesTrendingResearchersJournals
Instagram
HomeExploreJournal ClubTrending
Synapse
⌘+K
Synapse
December 6, 2025Geoscientific model development5 citationsOpen Access

The ICON-based Earth System Model for climate predictions and projections (ICON XPP v1.0)

View Full Paper
WMWolfgang A. MüllerTPTrang Van PhamASAndrea Schneidereit

Key Points

  • Model reliably captures the inter-tropical convergence zone and its unique temperature distribution across oceans, improving climate forecasts.
  • Observational data aligns with a mean global near-surface temperature fluctuation of about 1.2 °C since the 1850s, indicating accuracy in climate representation.
  • Analysis leverages an ensemble-variational data assimilation system, effectively modeling atmospheric dynamics including the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
  • Findings support the model's good performance in simulating jet stream behaviors and their influences on climate variability, highlighting its research application.

Abstract

Abstract. We develop a new Earth System model configuration framed into the ICON architecture, which provides the baseline for the next generation of climate predictions and projections (hereafter ICON XPP – where XPP stands for eXtended Predictions and Projections). ICON XPP comprises the atmospheric component of the numerical weather prediction (ICON NWP), the ICON ocean and land surface components, and an ensemble-variational data assimilation system, all adjusted to an Earth System model for pursuing climate research and operational climate forecasting. Two baseline configurations are presented: (1) a 160 km atmosphere and a 40 km ocean resolution, and (2) 80 km atmosphere and 20 km ocean resolution. A CMIP DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experimentation framework is used for a first evaluation. ICON XPP depicts the basic properties of the coupled climate. The pre-industrial climate shows a top-of-atmosphere balanced radiation budget and a mean global near-surface temperature of 13.8–14.0 °C. The ocean shows circulation strengths in the range of the observed values, such as the AMOC at 16–18 Sv and the flows through the common passages. The current climate is characterized by a trend in the global mean temperature of ∼ 1.2 °C since the 1850s, similar to reference datasets. Regionally, the hydroclimate differs greatly from observed conditions. For example, the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) has a double peak and a wet southern subtropical branch across the oceans. Further, the Southern Ocean sea surface temperature has a strong positive mean bias with temperatures up to 5 °C higher than observations. Dynamical processes, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) performs similarly to CMIP6-like coupled models. Tropical waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation are well captured, and the 40 km atmospheric configuration has a spontaneous weak quasi-biennial oscillation. The atmospheric dynamics in the northern extra-tropics of both configurations represent well the position of the jet stream as well as the influences of the transient momentum transports and their feedbacks on the jet stream. Overall, ICON XPP performs similarly to climate models performed in CMIP6 making it a good basis for climate forecasts and projections, and climate research.

Ask AI
Helpful
Bookmark
Share
View Full Paper

Cite This Study

Müller et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69337cfbb3f947a0a125a4ffhttps://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025
Ask AI
Helpful
Bookmark
Share
View Full Paper