Demographic Drivers of Population Decline in the Endangered Korean Fir (Abies koreana): Insights from a Bayesian Integral Projection Model

Understanding the demographic mechanisms underlying the decline of endangered tree species is essential for developing effective conservation strategies. This study aimed to quantify the population trajectory and its demographic drivers in the Korean fir (Abies koreana), a subalpine conifer endemic to South Korea and listed as endangered by the IUCN, using a Bayesian Integral Projection Model (IPM). Based on eight years of field monitoring of survival, growth, and recruitment, the Bayesian IPM estimated the population growth rate (λs) and quantified its uncertainty under interannual environmental variation. The results indicated that interannual variation in drought, represented by the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), was a key driver of demographic changes. The mean population growth rate (λ = 0.983) suggests a slow decline, primarily driven by high mortality among intermediate-sized individuals, which are vital for maintaining population stability. In contrast, the growth of small to medium trees showed a weak but positive elasticity, implying that management actions targeting these size classes could benefit population persistence. Accordingly, effective conservation of A. koreana should focus on mitigating drought stress through reducing competition and improving soil moisture and structure.