Does the Adjustment of the Industrial Structure Exacerbate the Transfer of Pollution Associated with Trade?

In the era of economic globalization, international trade has been growing at an accelerating pace. However, the issue of pollution transfer associated with trade presents a significant challenge to pollution management. To explore the factors influencing trade-embodied pollution, we take China as a case study. First, the MRIO model is chosen for quantitative analysis, and the generalized DID and reweighted semiparametric DID methods are used to explore the relationship between industrial structural adjustment and trade-embodied air pollution. We then employ mediation and moderation effect models to analyze the pathways of industrial transfer and environmental regulation. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Over time, the volume of embodied pollution transfer has gradually decreased. Developed regions serve primarily as exporters of pollution, whereas developing regions are inclined to be importers of pollutants. (2) The adjustment of industrial structures and the level of economic development will lead to a temporary increase in trade-embodied air pollution. (3) Industrial transfer partially mediates the link between industrial structural adjustments and trade-embodied air pollution, and environmental regulation serves as a positive moderating factor. The present findings yield policy recommendations for addressing trade-driven transboundary air pollution in three ways: promoting joint prevention and control, improving the quality of industrial structural adjustments, and strengthening regional environmental regulation. This study not only helps us examine the relationship between industrial structure and trade-embodied pollution but also enables us to explore pathways toward sustainable development.