Green Transformation of China’s Light Industry: Regulatory and Innovation Policy Scenarios, 2023–2036

Accelerating the green transformation of China’s light industry is of great significance for addressing resource and environmental issues and promoting sustainable development. Based on data from 16 light industry sectors in China from 2004 to 2023, this paper employs a system dynamics model to systematically explore the pathways for the green transformation of China’s light industry. The study finds that the green transformation of China’s light industry will exhibit a trend of first declining and then rising in the future. Simultaneously implementing measures to increase environmental regulation, strengthen independent innovation, promote imitative innovation, and reduce technology acquisition represents the optimal pathway for driving the green transformation. Based on these findings, future efforts should focus on optimizing technological innovation pathways and scientifically setting environmental regulation intensities. This paper not only fills the gap in dynamic system analysis within the field of green transformation of the light industry, but also provides valuable reference for promoting the sustainable development of manufacturing in China and globally.