What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to explore how epistemic uncertainty affects statistical predictions and risk assessments.

December 10, 2025RisksOpen Access

The Regress of Uncertainty and the Forecasting Paradox

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The analysis reveals uncertainty influences risk management and scientific modeling, suggesting forecasts must account for heavier tails.

This research aims to explore how epistemic uncertainty affects statistical predictions and risk assessments.
Theoretical analysis on the nature of epistemic uncertainty.
Examination of predictions under varied statistical tail conditions.
Assessment of implications for risk management, scientific modeling, and AI safety.
Uncertainty leads to thicker statistical tails, countering assumptions of thin-tailed predictions.
A paradox is established where future predictions are inherently more extreme than past observations.
The framework offers insights for managing risks in various fields, especially in AI and scientific contexts.

Taleb et al. (2025) studied this question.

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