Elephant range and population, strontium isotopes, and genetics combine to give local-scale specificity to ivory hotspot tracking

We use Sr isotopes to increase the precision of DNA-based origin estimates of wildlife products. Population information is used to develop Sr isotope Elephant Polygons that are overlaid onto the region of origin identified by DNA assignment to determine the sources of seized ivory samples. Our approach is cognizant of isotope mixing due to isotope turnover within animals and also of the large home range of elephants or other mobile species. Genetic information from 3 different law enforcement ivory seizures suggests a region of origin confined to Kenya and Tanzania in eastern Africa. We determine characteristic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios for each of 25 different Elephant Polygons within this region using analyses of more the 600 known-origin reference samples. Using both the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the seized ivory samples and elephant population estimates from individual Elephant Polygons we find that at least 75 % of the samples likely came from a single Elephant Polygon which includes the Tsavo National Parks in Kenya and the Mkomazi National Park in Tanzania. A few samples may have come from other regions, most likely from Tanzania. This study illustrates the value of combining genetics, isotope geochemistry, and population surveys in wildlife forensics studies.