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December 8, 2025Journal of General Internal Medicine2 citationsOpen Access

Cost-Effectiveness of Primary Prevention of Stroke in Type 2 Diabetes in the United States: A Microsimulation Analysis

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WYWen YeXJXiaqing JiangJLJing Li

Key Points

  • Full implementation of prevention strategies may prevent 151,000 stroke events over 10 years, with 61,900 deaths avoided.
  • Cost savings of $13.4 billion and an increase of 1,552,000 quality-adjusted life-years were projected from guideline-recommended practices.
  • Using a microsimulation model, the analysis evaluated scenarios for stroke prevention against the current approach.
  • Data supports prioritizing blood pressure management, statin, and aspirin therapies, highlighting a need for enhanced preventive measures.

Abstract

Abstract Background Implementation of guideline-recommended strategies to prevent acute ischemic stroke (AIS) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains suboptimal. Objectives We evaluated and compared the health impact and cost-effectiveness of improved implementation of guideline-recommended strategies for AIS prevention in patients with T2D in the United States. Design We compared scenarios with enhanced implementation of these prevention strategies to the status-quo using a microsimulation model. Participants National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2015–2018 participants ≥ 45 years of age with T2D and no stroke history. Main measures We evaluated stroke-related events, costs, stroke-related quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and net health benefit (NHB) from a health system perspective over a 10-year time horizon. A discount rate of 3% per year was applied to costs and QALYs. Costs were expressed in 2022 U. S. dollars. Key Results Full implementation of guideline-recommended blood pressure (BP), statin, and aspirin therapies, and smoking cessation would each be cost-saving or highly cost-effective (< 50, 000 per QALY-gained). Over 10 years, full implementation of all four of the strategies would prevent 151, 000 stroke events, 61, 900 deaths from stroke, save 13. 4 billion, and produce a nationwide increase of 1, 552, 000 QALYs (NHB). Conclusions Recent attention has focused on the treatment of AIS. We demonstrate that substantial opportunities exist to improve the primary prevention of AIS in Americans with T2D. Providers and payers should prioritize adherence to guidelines for BP, statin and aspirin therapy, and smoking cessation for stroke prevention.

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Cite This Study

Ye et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/694020e22d562116f28faaabhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-025-10067-x
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