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December 6, 2025Scientific Reports3 citationsOpen Access

Accurate Mediterranean Sea forecasting via graph-based deep learning

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ECEmanuela ClementiIEItalo EpicocoTRTeemu Roos

Key Points

  • SeaCast achieved significant advancements in high-resolution ocean forecasting, outpacing traditional methods.
  • Results revealed consistent performance improvement over the operational model across a 10-day forecast window.
  • Analysis showed that the graph-based framework allows effective handling of complex ocean grid geometries.
  • Implications indicate potential enhancements for environmental monitoring and coastal risk management.

Abstract

Abstract Accurate ocean forecasting systems are essential for understanding marine dynamics, which play a crucial role in sectors such as shipping, aquaculture, environmental monitoring, and coastal risk management. Traditional numerical solvers, while effective, are computationally expensive and time-consuming. Recent advancements in machine learning have revolutionized weather forecasting, offering fast and energy-efficient alternatives. Building on these advancements, we introduce SeaCast, a neural network designed for high-resolution regional ocean forecasting. SeaCast employs a graph-based framework to effectively handle the complex geometry of ocean grids and integrates external forcing data tailored to the regional ocean context. Our approach is validated through experiments at a high horizontal resolution using the operational numerical forecasting system of the Mediterranean Sea, along with both numerical and data-driven atmospheric forcings. Results demonstrate that SeaCast consistently outperforms the operational model over the conventional 10-day forecast window and further extends skillful predictions to 15 days, marking a significant advancement in regional ocean prediction.

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Cite This Study

Clementi et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/694020f72d562116f28fb42ahttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-31177-w
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