Yersinia pestis transmission risk associated with Himalayan marmots (Marmota himalayana) of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau

The Himalayan marmot is the primary plague (Yersinia pestis) reservoir on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, driving human transmission in high altitudes. Effective control requires predicting climate, environment, and human activity-driven marmot density changes and multi-dimensional risk assessment. This study used a random forest model to analyze these factors' impact on marmot density and employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to create a risk framework. Findings show climate remains the dominant driver of marmot density under current conservation policies. In risk assessment, host density and plague detection rate were primary risk sources. Among human factors, human density showed stronger risk correlation than other disturbance indicators. This provides a comprehensive, multi-factor risk assessment method for plateau plague control, improving zoonotic disease prevention systems.