The Effect of Public Rental Housing Residency on Fertility: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis

High housing costs have been identified as a major barrier to fertility. In response, the government has expanded public rental housing policies to raise the fertility rate. However, existing studies analyzing the relationship between public rental housing and childbirth often do not control for the characteristics of tenant households. As a result, births that are actually due to household characteristics may be mistakenly interpreted as the effect of public rental housing itself. This study aims to estimate the causal impact of public rental housing on childbirth by applying a quasi-experimental design that incorporates propensity score matching (PSM), difference-in-differences (DID), and event study methodologies. In addition, this study also examined whether the effect of public rental housing on childbirth differs across groups. As a result of the analysis, public rental housing showed a statistically significant effect, increasing the probability of childbirth by 4.0 to 4.2 percent point in the year of move-in. However, this effect was at a modest level compared to societal expectations. Differences in childbirth effects according to public rental housing characteristics were also partially observed. These results suggest that while public rental housing may contribute to childbirth to some extent, its effect is limited. They also show that expanding the supply of public rental housing alone cannot solve the low birthrate problem.