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The research aims to quantify the impact of uncertainty on nuclear construction costs and identify key parameters affecting these costs.

December 23, 2025Open Access

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

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Sensitivity analysis reveals cost reduction opportunities in nuclear construction, indicating substantial impacts from uncertainty.

The research aims to quantify the impact of uncertainty on nuclear construction costs and identify key parameters affecting these costs.
Evaluated 18 model parameters through sensitivity analysis
Applied Monte Carlo analysis to model outputs
Assessed Net Overnight Capital Cost, Construction Duration, and Levelized Cost of Electricity
Identified significant cost reduction means through the understanding of various model parameters
Revealed that absolute uncertainty in cost estimates decreases with deployment experience
Showed that small parameter changes can significantly impact project costs

Marchie et al. (2025) studied this question.

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