This study takes the source region of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2024 as the research area, and integrates multi-source remote sensing, long-term meteorological observation, and land use data from 2000 to 2024. Using GIS spatial analysis, the standard ellipse model, and a geographic detector, this study systematically depicts the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and multi-scale evolution trend of soil and water conservation services, and then quantifies the spatial differentiation of the contribution rate of climate fluctuation, land use transformation, and human activity intensity to service change. The results showed the following: (1) The land use pattern in the source region of the Yellow River showed a one-way transformation of “grassland dominated, forest land increased alone, and the rest decreased”. The net increase in forest land 204.3 km2 was all from the transformation of grassland. The vegetation coverage increased by 9.9%, and the low-value area of soil and water conservation services in the northwest continued to expand. (2) The overall moving distance of the center of gravity of soil and water conservation service capacity is not significant compared with the spatial scale of the source area of the Yellow River. The standard deviation ellipse of each year also did not show systematic and large changes in area, shape, or direction. (3) Annual mean temperature (Q = 0.590) and vegetation coverage (Q = 0.527) are the most influential single factors, while the interaction between annual mean temperature and precipitation (bidirectional enhancement) is the most stable synergistic driving combination. The single-factor Q values of topography and human activities were <0.10. (4) Climate and economic factors are the key factors driving the spatial differentiation of soil and water conservation service capacity, and the role of each driving factor has an optimal range to reduce the risk of soil erosion. The optimal range of population density is 7~9 person/km2, the optimal range of average GDP is 11,900~14,100 yuan/km2, the optimal range of annual average temperature is 1.71~3.47 °C, the optimal range of annual precipitation is 682~730 mm, the optimal range of vegetation coverage is 81.7~100%, and the optimal range of altitude is 3390~3740 m. The optimal range of slope is 18.3~24.3°. The optimal range of soil moisture is 26.7~29.4%. The optimal range of grazing intensity is 0.352~0.652. The study proposes countermeasures such as strict control of development in high-value areas of soil and water conservation services and key ecological restoration in low-value areas, the establishment of breeding bases and catchment areas in low-precipitation areas to cope with climate change, the optimization of grazing strategies, so as to provide scientific support for the stability of alpine grassland ecosystem services, and the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.
Li et al. (Mon,) studied this question.