Validating the EU’s Blue Growth Climatic Resilience: New Insights from the Aquaculture and Land Use Change

Context and Aims: To examine how Land Use Change (LUC) in the EU27 has been influenced by the expansion of the aquaculture sector over the period 1990–2023. Methods: Endogeneity in estimating the causal link between aquaculture and LUC—was addressed using three distinct econometric estimators: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Robust Least Squares (RLS), and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Key Results; (1) Unsustainable growth in the aquaculture industry is a primary driver of more severe land destruction in EU13 nations compared to EU14 nations. (2) In EU14 nations, fossil fuel consumption and economic expansion within the aquaculture sector exert a more pronounced influence on LUC than in EU13 nations. (3) The institutional quality of the aquaculture sector plays a larger role in shaping LUC management practices in EU13 nations relative to EU14 nations. Conclusion: Land conversion for aquaculture is frequently associated with adverse outcomes, including natural resource degradation, social and community disruptions, and heightened ecological and economic risks. Implication: EU27 policymakers should prioritize enhancing the environmental sustainability and performance of the aquaculture industry. Specifically, initiatives aimed at fostering sustainable marine economies should be emphasized for both EU13 and EU14 nations to mitigate adverse LUC effects and support long-term sectoral and environmental sustainability.