What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to explore how systemic inflammation markers relate to the risk of developing abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA).

January 10, 2026BMC Public Health0 citationsOpen Access

Systemic inflammation, polygenic risk score, and risk of incident abdominal aortic aneurysm in the UK biobank

HPHongji PuChongqing University PQPeng QiuShanghai Jiao Tong University HGHongbin GuoShanghai Jiao Tong University

Key Result

For each 1-SD increase in baseline CRP, the risk of incident abdominal aortic aneurysm increased by 46% in the UK Biobank cohort over 13.9 years of follow-up.

Key Points

The aim is to explore how systemic inflammation markers relate to the risk of developing abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA).
Included 271,068 individuals from the UK Biobank without prior aortic aneurysm.
Analyzed associations using Cox proportional-hazards models while adjusting for polygenic risk score and other major risk factors.
Performed subgroup analyses based on age, sex, smoking status, and inflammatory markers.
Discovered 629 new cases of AAA over a median follow-up of 13.9 years.
Each 1-SD increase in CRP raised AAA risk by 46%, while lymphocyte, monocyte, and neutrophil increases raised risk by 17%, 27%, and 27%, respectively.
Identified chronic systemic inflammation as a significant risk factor for AAA incidence.

Structured PICO

Does chronic systemic inflammation increase the risk of incident abdominal aortic aneurysm in a healthy population?

Population

271,068 individuals from the UK Biobank, aged 38-73 years (median 55), free of aortic aneurysm and other conditions impacting inflammatory states at baseline.

Outcome

Incident abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA)hard clinical

Elevated baseline systemic inflammatory markers, particularly CRP, are significantly associated with an increased risk of incident abdominal aortic aneurysm, complementing traditional and genetic risk factors.

Main Result

Absolute Event Rate: 0% vs 0%

Abstract

AIMS: There remains clinical uncertainty concerning the relationship between systemic inflammation and subsequent abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) risk. To investigate the association between chronic systematic inflammation markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), peripheral immune cell counts, and their derived ratios) and risk of AAA incidence, and identify potential effect modifiers. METHODS: We included 271,068 individuals from the UK Biobank, who were free of aortic aneurysm and other conditions impacting their inflammatory states at baseline. Cox proportional-hazards model was used to analyze associations between inflammatory biomarkers and AAA, adjusting for AAA polygenetic risk score (PRS) and major risk factors. Restricted cubic splines were plotted to visualize non-linear relationship. Subgroup analyses by age, sex, hypertension, smoking and PRS were performed to identify any interaction. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 13·9 years, 629 incident AAAs were recorded. For each 1-SD increase in baseline CRP, lymphocyte, monocyte, and neutrophil counts, the risk of AAA increased by 46%, 17%, 27% and 27%, respectively (all CONCLUSIONS: Our study found a significant association between chronic systemic inflammation and risk of AAA incidence. CRP compliments PRS and other AAA risk factors in better identifying high-risk populations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-025-25123-8. UNLABELLED: Current indexes for identifying patients to screen for AAA are family history, age, sex and smoking. This study revealed that a healthy public with a high level of CRP and one of the above traditional high-risk factors of AAA (high genetic risk, ≥ 65 years old, male, or current smoker) had a high risk of incident AAA and is recommended to screen for AAA. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-025-25123-8.

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