Abstract Uncertainty significantly influences healthcare policy decisions, especially regarding lockdown exits during pandemics. This study examines both epidemiological and economic and social uncertainties affecting stay-at-home and essential workers concerning COVID-19 exposure. Using an epidemiological real options model, we assess how these uncertainties impact the timing of lockdown exit decisions. The results indicate that a higher policy-change value lengthens the lockdown delay. A greater shock correlation between stay-at-home and mask-only populations reduces this value, leading to earlier lockdown exits. By conceptually incorporating economic and social pressures, such as income disruption, public fatigue, and policy irreversibility, the model provides a more realistic understanding of the trade-offs faced by decision-makers. These findings bridge the discrepancies between public health recommendations and policymakers’ actions. Integrating options theory enables more informed decision making by considering uncertain risks and outcomes.
Felipa de Mello-Sampayo (Tue,) studied this question.