What question did this study set out to answer?

To model the impact of climate change on bluetongue lizard habitats and assess protected areas' effectiveness.

January 20, 2026Diversity and Distributions0 citationsOpen Access

Projecting Climate‐Driven Habitat Loss in Highly Trafficked Lizards: The Role of Dispersal Limitations and Protected Areas

JVJuan P. Valbuena‐FernandezMuseums Victoria BSBenjamin R. ShipleyGeorgia Institute of Technology AEAlistair EvansMuseums Victoria

Key Points

To model the impact of climate change on bluetongue lizard habitats and assess protected areas' effectiveness.
Applied ecological niche models to predict climate suitability shifts for 13 bluetongue lizard species.
Utilized three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for predictions.
Incorporated factors like dispersal capacity and protected area extents in the models.
11 out of 13 species are expected to face significant habitat reductions by 2100.
Six species may lose over half their suitable habitat across all SSP scenarios, with some facing up to 100% loss.
Approximately 638,101 km² of land in Australia projected to become unsuitable for at least three species.
Protected areas are unlikely to offer sufficient refuge as most species will experience climatic declines within them.

Abstract

ABSTRACT Aims Climate change poses severe threats to biodiversity in Australia, particularly for species already at risk from other factors, such as bluetongue lizards ( Tiliqua and Cyclodomorphus spp.). Here we model climate‐driven changes in suitable climatic conditions for bluetongue lizards to 2060 and 2100 under multiple climate scenarios and evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in mitigating these impacts. Location Australia and New Guinea. Methods Ecological niche models were used to project shifts in suitable climatic conditions for 13 species of bluetongue lizards under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5). Models incorporated dispersal capacity and the extent of protected areas. Results Of the 13 bluetongue lizard species considered, most (11) are projected to experience substantial reductions in suitable climatic conditions by 2100. Six species are projected to lose more than half of their suitable climatic area under all SSP scenarios, with Tiliqua adelaidensis , T. multifasciata and Cyclodomorphus celatus projected to lose between 83.3% and 100%. Across Australia, up to 638,101 km 2 of land is projected to become unsuitable for at least three bluetongue species, particularly within the arid interior. Protected areas do not appear to provide effective refuge, as suitable climatic conditions within these zones are projected to decline for at least 10 of the 13 species by 2100, including reductions of 54.3–100% for seven species, underscoring the limited buffering capacity of the current protected‐area network under future climate change. Main Conclusions Our findings underscore the vulnerability of bluetongue lizards to climate change and highlight the potential limitations of current protected areas in ensuring their conservation. Urgent integration of climate projections into conservation planning, alongside enhanced protections against illegal trade, is critical to safeguarding bluetongue lizard species.

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