Abstract Background Earthquakes are the deadliest natural disasters affecting the human environment. Global seismic risk and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Purpose Successful preventive measures and planning of post-earthquake activities are based on scenarios of expected damage, destruction and casualties from predicted strong seismic impacts. Methods The study presents the comprehensive and advanced earthquake hazard assessment for the city of Blagoevgrad. The earthquake hazard for the city is estimated using both probabilistic and deterministic methods. The ground-shaking representations for the city of Blagoevgrad are produced through a GIS, by combining: active faults capable of generating strong earthquakes; location and geometry of the scenario earthquake source with assigned magnitude; an appropriate GMPE’s, consistent with the seismotectonic features of the region; and account soil amplification effects using geological zonation of the considered urban area. Results The deterministic and probabilistic estimates of maximum acceleration vary across the city in the range of 0.26 g - 0.45 g for MW7.2 earthquake and from 0.23g to 30.40 g for the 475- year return period respectively. The highest acceleration and velocity values are in the central and south western parts of the Blagoevgrad city. Conclusion The results of the study show that most of the Blagoevgrad territory is classified at the highest seismic hazard level - PGA larger than 0.3 g and PGV more than 24 cm/s. The results from the study will assist decision-makers involved in local and state government to manage potential damage and loss of life from strong earthquakes occurred in and near the city of Blagoevgrad.
Solakov et al. (Mon,) studied this question.