Dynamics of Native Forests and Exotic Tree Plantations in Southern Chile

Assessing the dynamics between native forests and exotic tree plantations is key to understanding the drivers of native forest transformation and conservation challenges. We examined these dynamics across four zones in the Los Ríos and Los Lagos regions of southern Chile: the Coastal Range, Central Valley, Andes, and Chiloé. Changes from 2002–2012 and 2012–2022 were analyzed using satellite image classifications and landscape metrics (total area, mean patch size, number of patches, patch density, mean Euclidean nearest-neighbor distance). In both periods, in zones with strong human influence, such as the Coastal Range and Central Valley, native forest area decreased and became more fragmented, whereas exotic tree plantations initially expanded and then declined, resulting in a net increase. Transitions between native forests and exotic plantations showed strong bidirectional substitutions. In less disturbed zones, such as the Andes and Chiloé, native forests expanded in area and connectivity. Overall, native forest cover increased in the Andes (+12.85 km2) and Chiloé. (+6.19 km2) but declined in the Coastal Range (−0.65 km2) and Central Valley (−7.75 km2), whereas exotic plantations showed a net expansion across all zones. These contrasting trajectories underscore the need for reliable monitoring tools to support effective forest management.