CO2 Emissions Scenarios in the European Union—The Urgency of Carbon Capture and Controlled Economic Growth

Although greenhouse gas emissions have significantly reduced, the European Union still faces a major challenge in meeting its 2050 net-zero goal set under the European Green Deal. Focusing on the impacts of population, economic output, and carbon intensity of economy, this study employs Index Decomposition Analysis to estimate the reductions in carbon intensity needed to reach this target. The findings show that the extent of the technical effort required for decarbonization is much influenced by economic expansion. Under a 3% annual Gross Domestic Product growth scenario, the EU’s carbon intensity of economy must decline by 11.8% per year, which is a particularly demanding rate given the already low baseline. The decomposition also quantifies the technological challenge: under high growth, up to 5867 MtCO2 in reductions would be needed by 2050 (compared with 1990), with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) contributing only 10–15%. In contrast, in zero- or negative-growth scenarios, required reductions fall to 4923–4594 MtCO2, with CCS accounting for up to 50–90%. These results show that decarbonization in EU industrial sectors requires systemic transformations and strategic CCS deployment. A balanced approach, limiting economic growth and increasing innovation, appears essential to achieve the climate neutrality target.