ABSTRACT Climate change is a major driver influencing species survival and distribution, particularly for species endemic to mountainous regions. The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), which is a global biodiversity hotspot and the world's youngest mountain system with a high level of endemism, is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. This study investigates how future climate change may affect the potential distribution of two congeneric species, Aconitum spicatum and Aconitum naviculare, both endemic to the HKH and occupying habitats with contrasting moisture regimes. Using machine learning‐based ecological niche modeling, we assessed projected changes in climatically suitable habitats under moderate (SSP2‐4.5) and high (SSP5‐8.5) emissions scenarios for two future epochs. Our results indicate that A. spicatum, which prefers moist environments, is projected to experience a decline in suitable habitats across much of its current range without a shift of projected elevation range, particularly in China, India, and Myanmar, due to warming and altered precipitation patterns. Conversely, A. naviculare, which inhabits semi‐arid regions, is expected to exhibit an overall expansion of suitable habitats with a shift of projected elevation range, particularly in China and, to a lesser extent, Nepal, suggesting potential emergence of new ecological niches under future climate conditions. These contrasting responses highlight the species‐specific nature of climate change impacts. Additionally, the overlapped suitable habitat areas of these two species are predicted to decline in future. While future climate change may offer new opportunities for range expansion of the currently range‐restricted A. naviculare, it may simultaneously shrink the habitat range of the more widely distributed A. spicatum. Suitable habitat overlaps under current and future climate scenarios of congeneric but allopatric species that we report can have ecological and evolutionary implications. These insights are critical for designing adaptive, species‐specific conservation strategies that integrate both climate projections and socioecological pressures, such as overharvesting.
Shrestha et al. (Wed,) studied this question.