Influential factors in the formation and collapse of real estate stock bubbles in Vietnam

Purpose This study investigates the dynamics of real estate stock bubbles and the factors affecting the price of real estate stocks in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The analysis focuses on five indicators: the Consumer Price Index (CPI), USD/VND exchange rate (EXR), Gold Price Index (GPI), Housing and Construction Materials Price Index (HPI), GDP growth rate, Refinancing rate (REFR), Trading volume (VOL), Trading value (VAL) using quarterly data from 2006 to 2022. The Generalized Sup Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) test was used to identify periods of explosive price movement, while the Fixed Effects Model with Clustered Variance (FEM VCE) regression model was employed to assess the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices. Findings The results confirm the presence of real estate stock bubbles in the examined period. The CPI, trading volume and refinancing rate had a negative impact on price, while GDP growth, GPI, HPI and trading value had a positive relationship. In contrast, USD/VND exchange rate do not show statistically significant relationships. Originality/value By identifying the key macroeconomic factors driving the formation and collapse of real estate stock bubbles in Vietnam, an area which previously lacked detailed investigation, this study provides empirical evidence to support risk assessment, regulatory oversight, and policy development to improve the stability of the country's stock market.