Heating Up Inequality?

ETS2 will introduce uniform EU-wide carbon pricing for heating, affecting about half of all households across the Union. Using a synthetic EU population of 188 million households, this study shows that most can absorb the additional costs, but a significant minority faces high burdens—especially in Eastern and Southern Europe. ETS2 revenues can cushion these impacts but are insufficient to fund largescale heating system replacements. Targeted support and complementary investment policies are essential for a fair and effective transition.