Abstract In the initial investigations on hazard assessment at regional (1:25,000) and semi-detailed (1:5. 000) scale of one of the landslides occurred in the sector of Cortinas, Colombia (2021), has been demonstrating the novel hypothesis of the influence of the variation of the conditioning factors over time, a process called Accumulated Geotechnical Deterioration (AGD) in the occurrence of a geotechnical instability event, which does not properly depend on the critical thresholds of the triggering factors as commonly considered. This study focuses on analyzing the influence of the AGD on a detailed scale (1:2,000). Four stability analyses were performed to obtain the factors of safety by the limit equilibrium method using soil strength and permeability parameters obtained from field tests, conducted on four different dates (years 2017, 2021, 2023, 2024) over a period of 7 years. The results of the stability analyses show that the safety factors of 2017 were higher than those of 2021 (Landslide) and that for the years 2023 and 2024 these values increased progressively, consistent with the results of the resistance parameters obtained in the area for each date. According to the analyses performed, can be concluded that the soil as a conditioning factor undergoes cycles of recovery and deterioration due to the effects of the triggers (AGD) until it goes back to a failure condition; therefore, the AGD could be determinant in the prediction of future instability events in a study area, as long as proper monitoring of the resistance parameters is carried out.
Ballesteros et al. (Fri,) studied this question.