Modeling the Lagged Effects of Cultural and Educational Exchange on Inbound Tourism: Evidence From a VAR-IRF Analysis of China

The tourism industry is driven by multiple factors. However, current research on the impact of culture on inbound and outbound tourism demand remains limited, particularly regarding the comparative effects of various types of cultural dissemination activities. This study employs time series analysis methods, collecting data on inbound tourist arrivals, tourism revenue, Confucius Institutes, international students in China, and cultural product exports. Vector autoregression (VAR) and impulse response functions (IRF) were used to analyze the short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships among these variables. The findings reveal a significant positive correlation between cultural dissemination activities and inbound tourism demand, exhibiting a lagged effect. The long-run equilibrium relationship indicates a strong positive correlation between the number of international students and tourist arrivals. Furthermore, the number of Confucius Institutes positively impacts both tourist arrivals and tourism revenue. This study confirms the crucial role of cultural dissemination in promoting inbound tourism. However, different forms of cultural dissemination activities may influence tourism demand through distinct mechanisms. The findings suggest that cultural exchange activities not only stimulate inbound tourism demand but also help disperse visitor flows and enhance destination management, playing a vital role in achieving sustainable tourism development. Lastly, this study provides robust empirical evidence that aligns with UNESCO’s sustainable tourism indicators.