Economic growth is forecasted to rise driven by oil production, but high inflation and deficits raise concerns.
Kazakhstan’s economy is showing clear signs of overheating. After growing by around 5 percent in 2023 and 2024, the economy is expected to expand by 6.2 percent in 2025, fueled by rising oil production, a loose fiscal stance, expanding quasi-fiscal activities, and rapid consumer lending. Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 12½ percent and the current account deficit is widening. The outlook faces elevated risks from persistent inflation, an uncertain external environment, and weaker oil prices.
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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. (2026) studied this question.
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