Potential Impact of Geoeconomic Fragmentation on Egypt’s Foreign Trade

This study aims to extrapolate the impact of Geoeconomic Fragmentation (GEF) on the future of Egypt’s foreign trade through an analysis of trade composition between Egypt and both Western (G7) and Eastern (BRICS) blocs by using descriptive and analytical methods during the period 2001-2023. The results indicate that Egypt’s trade has increased with the Eastern bloc (BRICS) and decreased with the Western bloc (G7), with the BRICS becoming a principal import market. At the same time, Egypt’s export intensity with the G7 surpasses that of the BRICS’s. This means that the G7 countries represent an export market for Egypt. Therefore, Egypt’s GEF away from the G7 will impose restrictions on Egypt’s exports, adversely affecting the Egyptian economy. Moreover, the RCA index indicates that various sectors in Egypt exhibit differing RCA values compared to BRICS and G7 countries. Consequently, Egypt has the potential to enhance trade with the two blocs. The findings provide insights for policy development aimed at improving economic integration and collaboration between Egypt and the two blocs; additionally, enhancing export competitiveness.