Key result
NIHSS documentation climbs to ~93% but significant hospital variation and severity reporting bias remain.
Why the study?
The introduction of NIHSS into CMS risk adjustment may incentivize selective documentation of higher scores over lower scores, prompting examination of hospital-level variation in documentation patterns over time.
While NIHSS documentation in Medicare claims for acute ischemic stroke improved from 2016 to 2019, significant hospital-level variation persists, potentially biasing claims-based stroke severity characterization.
Persistent variation may bias claims-based severity adjustment; leaves open reliable risk adjustment in observational stroke studies.
Background: The NIHSS is critical for adequate risk adjustment in claims-based analyses of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). In 2016, an ICD-10-CM code was introduced and in 2023, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) began usings NIHSS in risk adjustment for hospitals’ 30-day mortality performance measure for stroke. This application may incentivize documentation of higher scores more than lower scores. We sought to examine hospital-level variation in documentation rates, changes in hospitals’ documentation patterns over time, and the extent to which hospitals used the full range of possible scores. Methods: We used traditional Medicare claims data from 2016-2019 to identify AIS encounters. We included all hospitals with at least 5 AIS encounters (emergency department or inpatient) in each year of the study period. For each hospital we determined the proportion of encounters with NIHSS documented, by year, and used a linear regression model to examine the hospital-level trend in the proportion of cases with NIHSS documented over time. We examined the proportion of NIHSS <6 for each hospital by year, and how this varied by hospital documentation rates. Results: In the 2,331 hospitals that met inclusion criteria there were 885,967 AIS encounters from 2016-2019, with a documented NIHSS in 295,796 (33.4%) and scores ranging from 0-42 (Median: 5; 25th-75th: 2-11). From 2016 to 2019 the percentage of hospitals documenting at least one NIHSS increased from 54.8% to 92.6%. The median percentage of cases with a documented NIHSS by hospital in 2016 was 1.1% (25th-75th: 0%-4.9%) increasing to 46.2% in 2019 (25th-75th: 22.7%-68.4%; p-value for trend<0.001; Figure 1). Among encounters with any NIHSS documented, 48.4% were <6 in 2016 and 55.9% in 2019 (Figure 2). Among hospitals with an overall documentation percentage greater than 50%, the median percentage <6 was 33.3% (25th-75th: 27.7%-38.9%). Among hospitals with an overall documentation percentage less than 25% and at least one NIHSS documented, the median percentage <6 was 7.2% (25th-75th: 3.70%-10.9%). Conclusions: Documentation of NIHSS has improved over time, however, there remains substantial hospital-level variation. While hospitals’ case-mixes vary, our data suggest that hospitals with lower documentation rates may record NIHSS for severe stroke cases more frequently than for milder ones, thereby biasing the claims-based characterization of stroke severity in the US.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Soucie et al. (2026) studied this question. NIHSS documentation in hospitals increased from 54.8% in 2016 to 92.6% in 2019, but significant variation and bias in reporting severity remain.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: