Resilience and market diversification in sustainable tourism: evidence from international arrivals to Türkiye (2012–2025)

Purpose This study analyzes the possible connections between resilience and market diversification of inbound tourism to Türkiye from 2012 to 2025. The aim is to assess the reaction of international arrivals to global fluctuations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic era, and to examine the structural linkage to primary source markets within the concept of sustainable tourism management. Design/methodology/approach The research uses annual country-specific data related to international arrivals. We used time-series analysis to uncover long-term behaviors and the consequences of crises. The research also used Shannon entropy and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to look at market concentration and diversity. A comparative analysis of the primary source countries indicates variations in recovery trajectories and resilience in the concept of sustainable tourism management. Findings The results show that Türkiye's inbound tourism grew steadily until 2019, decreased severely during the pandemic and then bounced back strongly from 2022 to 2024. Market diversity has improved over time, but dependence on Germany and the Russian Federation tourists' activities is still high. Although the UK was more stable, and regional markets like Bulgaria and Iran were more unstable, their positive effect on achieving the sustainable tourism goal is still weak. Research limitations/implications The study is constrained by the partial coverage of 2025 data and the lack of direct indicators for environmental or social sustainability. Future research may combine these dimensions and their data to construct a more thorough and detailed evaluation for better understanding of the sustainable tourism context. Practical implications The results show that for tourism in Türkiye to be sustainable, it needs to have more diverse source markets, be better prepared for global or local crises and have plans for managing capacity, especially tourism management and seasonality. These insights can help government policymakers and local destination management bodies make long-term sustainability stronger. Social implications Highly concentrated tourism markets may cause revenue and employment volatility when principal source countries experience a downturn. Advocating for diversity in terms of various source markets for inbound tourism activities enhances tourism-related economic and social resilience and community welfare in terms of stable income flow and fosters inclusive growth throughout the local and national community in accordance with sustainable tourism objectives. Originality/value This study directly connects resilience and diversity to the management of sustainable tourism in a new destination. By integrating long-term real case data with related, respected and detailed market structure metrics, it offers novel insights into how destinations might improve their competitiveness, decreased vulnerabilities in crisis time periods and improve the sustainability of the tourism sector.