Integrated Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Framework for Urban Parcel Shipments to and from Establishments

In recent decades, a substantial increase in courier, express and parcel (CEP) shipments has been observed. This development is particularly problematic in urban areas, where an increase in first and last-mile shipments further strains existing infrastructure. To evaluate and identify alternative shipment concepts, transport planners use freight demand models. However, existing models that analyze CEP shipments focus primarily on parcel deliveries to private recipients, although establishments of all kinds, such as retail, account for the major proportion of all parcels on the first mile and a considerable proportion on the last mile. Hence, this study aims to develop an agent-based model that explicitly simulates CEP shipments on the first and last mile induced by establishments in urban environments. A modeling framework is developed and integrated into the existing parcel demand model logiTopp, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of the overall CEP market within a designated study area. All integrated modules are based on open data sources and self-conducted expert interviews with CEP service providers. The framework simulates on parcel level over a simulation period of one week and is made available as an open-source project. The model is applied to the study area of Karlsruhe, Germany. The results highlight the importance of considering CEP shipments to and from establishments; otherwise, transport-related effects are massively underestimated. Moreover, the study reveals the impact of specifics in establishment’s CEP shipments, such as carrier contracts, on key tour metrics.