Kilometer-scale convection-allowing model emulation using generative diffusion modeling

Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) explicitly resolve convective dynamics within the atmosphere to predict the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. Deep learning models have, thus far, not proven skillful in this regime of kilometer-scale atmospheric simulation, despite being competitive at coarser resolutions with state-of-the-art global, medium-range weather forecasting. We present a generative diffusion model called StormCast, which emulates the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)—National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s state-of-the-art 3-kilometer operational CAM. StormCast autoregressively predicts 99 state variables at the kilometer scale using a 1-hour time step, with dense vertical resolution in the atmospheric boundary layer, conditioned on 26 synoptic variables. We show successfully learned kilometer-scale dynamics including competitive 1- to 6-hour forecast skill for composite radar reflectivity alongside physically realistic convective cluster evolution, moist updrafts, and cold pool morphology. These results present opportunities for improving kilometer-scale regional ML weather prediction and future climate hazard dynamical downscaling.