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February 2, 2026Geophysical Research Letters0 citationsOpen Access

New Analytical Model for Forecasting Turbidity Current Run‐Up Heights: Implications for Risk Assessment of Seafloor Infrastructure on Submarine Slopes

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RWRu WangMHMia HughesJPJeff Peakall

Key Points

  • This research aims to develop a new analytical model for predicting turbidity current run-up heights on submarine slopes.
  • Developed and validated an analytical model based on physical experiments.
  • Assessed run-up heights as a function of slope angle and incidence angle.
  • Compared model predictions with existing confined 2D experiments and numerical models.
  • The model predicts run-up heights for various slope configurations more accurately than previous methods.
  • Findings suggest a significant reduction in risks associated with seafloor infrastructure due to improved prediction capability.
  • Model results indicate that turbidity currents can reach up to several hundred meters in height.

Abstract

Abstract Turbidity currents are destructive flows that are hazardous to critical seafloor infrastructure on submarine slopes because run‐up heights can be 10–100s of meters, as their relative density is 2–3 orders of magnitude lower than terrestrial flows. Currently, risk analysis is hindered by poor prediction of run‐up heights that are mainly derived from confined 2D experiments, and/or numerical models, and are restricted to a specific configuration whereby the flow strikes topographic barriers orthogonally. Here, a new analytical model is presented, informed by and validated against physical experiments, which predicts run‐up heights for flows encountering three‐dimensional slopes as a function of any slope angle, and incidence angle, of the impinging turbidity current. This has important implications for reducing geohazards by informing routing and positioning of seafloor infrastructure, and for more accurately interpreting submarine landscapes and their deposits.

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Cite This Study

Wang et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6980ffb4c1c9540dea8126b4https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118812
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