GAN-MIGA-Driven Building Energy Prediction and Block Layout Optimization: A Case Study in Lanzhou, China

With the rapid urbanization in China, building energy consumption has become a critical challenge for sustainable urban development. Conventional simulation methods are computationally intensive and inefficient for large-scale urban layout optimization, highlighting the need for fast and reliable predictive approaches. Existing machine learning models often overlook spatial relationships among buildings and rely heavily on manual feature engineering, which limits their applicability at the urban block scale. To address these limitations, the study proposes a building energy consumption prediction model for urban blocks based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), which preserves spatial information while significantly advancing computational speed. The optimal GAN model is further integrated with a Multi-Island Genetic Algorithm (MIGA) to form a GAN-MIGA optimization framework, which is applied to the layout optimization of a target urban block in Lanzhou. Key findings include: (1) the GAN model achieves an average prediction error of 6.8% compared with conventional energy simulations; (2) the GAN-MIGA framework reduces energy consumption by 48.78% relative to the worst-performing solution and by 22.53% compared with the original block layout; (3) the spatial distribution patterns of energy consumption predicted by the GAN are consistent with those obtained from traditional simulation methods; (4) the regression model derived from GAN-MIGA optimization results achieves an R2 value exceeding 0.84; and (5) building layout design strategies are formulated based on key morphological indicators in the regression model. Overall, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of the GAN-based method for urban scale building energy prediction and layout optimization. The proposed GAN-MIGA framework provides practical tools and theoretical support for energy-efficient design, policy formulation, and smart city development, contributing to more sustainable urban energy planning.