The Impact of Green Finance Development on Forest Ecological–Economic Efficiency: Evidence from Zhejiang Province, China

This study explores how green finance development (GF) promotes forest ecological–economic efficiency (FEEE), and identifies its underlying mechanisms and key determinants. Using panel data for 11 prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2022, the core area of China’s Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zone, this study employ mediation, moderation, and panel threshold models to empirically examine the impact and transmission pathways of GF. The results indicate that GF significantly enhances FEEE, mainly through technological progress, industrial structure upgrading (ISU), and industrial structure ecologization (ISE). Environmental regulation (ER) exerts a dominant negative effect on efficiency improvement, while a substitution effect exists between GF and ER. The heterogeneity analysis shows that direct GF plays a more pronounced role in improving efficiency compared with indirect GF. The threshold analysis further reveals that the impact of GF on FEEE is non-linear. Specifically, the marginal effect of GF on FEEE diminishes beyond a certain threshold, while its positive effect strengthens once the levels of ISE and ISU surpass their respective thresholds. These findings contribute to the theoretical understanding and policy design of GF in fostering ecological civilization.